Air Force 41, UNLV 31 — A Statement Win
If you were doubting this Air Force team, Saturday night should have put that to rest. A 41-31 win over UNLV is not a small thing. UNLV has been one of the better programs in the Mountain West in recent years and was considered by many to be a legitimate Group of Six contender for the College Football Playoff. Air Force went into that game and handled business in dominant fashion.
With the win, the Falcons move to 5-1 on the season and 3-1 in conference play, currently sitting third in the Mountain West standings. New Mexico remains the only undefeated conference team. More importantly, Air Force is now one win away from bowl eligibility. After winning only four games all of last season, this team has already surpassed that total six games in. That is a significant turnaround.
Evan Medders is the Real Deal
Let’s start with the obvious. Evan Medders had his first career three touchdown game Saturday night, including a backbreaking 35 yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter that essentially put the game away. His speed through the hole is genuinely something else. Once he’s through, he’s gone. There is a reason people are starting to compare his style favorably to Liam Szarka, and it is not a knock on Liam at all.
Szarka is a power back. Medders is a speed back. And honestly, given that Air Force already has power options in Owens and Kempers, Medders’ speed actually complements this offense really well. The balance feels better. This offense has not missed a beat since Szarka went down, and a lot of that credit goes to Medders stepping in and playing at a genuinely high level.
He is also a sophomore. That is worth repeating. The best football from Evan Medders is still ahead of him.
One more thing on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line deserves enormous credit. Air Force has put up 830 rushing yards in the last two games. None of that happens without the guys up front doing their jobs against quality opposition. Shout out to the diesels.
Rocco Conti is an Automatic First Down
Every time this guy touches the ball something good happens. He is not a big back but he hits the hole fast, does not dance around, and he keeps moving. His second and ten conversion on the opening drive was a pivotal play in a game that ended up being closer than it needed to be at times. If he gets tackled there it is third and eight and this offense is basically done on that drive. Instead he gets the first down and Air Force gets on the scoreboard.
When Medders had to come off briefly after his helmet came off, Conti stepped in and punched it in for a touchdown. Reliable and trustworthy every single time.
The Offensive Formula is Working
Air Force has the most ten-plus play drives in all of college football right now. The formula is not complicated. Establish the inside run, get three to four yards a play, control the clock, and only sprinkle in outside runs and play action when you have earned it.
What does not work is trying to beat fast teams to the sideline. UNLV is a fast team and the toss plays and reverses that showed up earlier in the game were consistently ineffective. When you have no passing game to fall back on, a play that goes for zero or negative yards is genuinely damaging. Third and ten is cooked territory for this offense.
Air Force had the ball for 35 minutes Saturday. They only attempted two passes, completing one. That is how this team wins. Stay between the tackles, pick up your yards, and don’t shoot yourself in the foot.
The Defense — Good When It Mattered, Still a Work in Progress
The defense did not play perfectly Saturday, but they made stops when it counted and forced turnovers when the game needed it. That is something. Thomas Young’s interception after forcing Jackson Arnold out of the pocket and into a bad decision was a huge play. The forced fumble in the fourth quarter when the defense could not get the stop but at least punched the ball out was also a big moment.
Air Force is running the most blitzes in the Mountain West this year. When it works, it works well. The pressure on Arnold that led to the interception was a direct result of that aggressiveness.
But there is a predictability problem. By the middle of the game it was obvious that almost every third down was bringing pressure. UNLV identified it, started throwing quick routes and jump balls to the outside, and eventually cashed in on a deep ball because the corners were on an island in man coverage repeatedly. If a casual fan watching the game can tell the blitz is coming, so can the offense.
The secondary is young. That is just reality. Putting them in man coverage consistently against a good receiving group is asking a lot. When Air Force shifted to more zone coverage in the second half the defense looked noticeably better. Arnold was less comfortable, the coverage was more organized, and the pass rush started to generate some pressure naturally.
The zone has to be the base going forward. Mix in the blitz, fake the blitz sometimes, keep the offense guessing. The defense has improved significantly from last year, but there is still room to grow.
Looking Ahead to Wyoming
One win from bowl eligibility. A Friday night road game in Laramie, which has historically not been a friendly place for Air Force.
The offensive keys are simple. Keep it between the tackles, protect the ball, and let this ground game do what it has been doing all season. No need to get fancy.
Defensively, mix up the coverage, stop being predictable with the blitz package, and trust the zone when the corners are getting tested. Wyoming will be a tough game. Air Force is capable of winning it.