Alright, Falcons fans, it’s that time of year again—we’re inching closer to another season of Air Force football! After a wild ride in 2024 that saw the team start slow but finish on fire, there’s a lot to be excited about heading into 2025. This isn’t the deep-dive analytics breakdown just yet (we’ll get to that), but consider this your early-season hype post. Let’s talk schedule, key storylines, and why this year feels different.
Why 2025 Could Be the Year
Look, last season was rough… until it wasn’t. Air Force finished 5-7, but they ended the year on a four-game win streak and finally looked like a team that knew what it was doing. The biggest reason? Stability. The Falcons had a nation-leading 42 players make their first career start in 2024 (the second-most in FBS was Troy with 26). By the end of the season, they’d settled on a quarterback (Quentin Hayes) and a steady offensive line. Once the lineup was set, the results followed.
The best part? Almost everyone is back. So, instead of last year’s chaotic “figure it out as we go” approach, 2025 should start on much firmer ground.
The 2025 Schedule: Early Predictions
The Falcons have a mix of winnable games, tough road tests, and, of course, the always-intense Commander-in-Chief matchups. Here’s how I see things shaking out:
August 30 vs. Bucknell – Win (1-0)
Air Force has never lost to an FCS opponent, and Bucknell doesn’t look like the team to change that. Fun fact: both teams lost to Navy last year by almost identical scores (Bucknell by 28, Air Force by 27). Just a weird little nugget.
September 13 at Utah State – Win (2-0)
Utah State can score, but they also couldn’t stop anyone last year, giving up almost 37 points per game. They brought in Bronco Mendenhall as head coach, which is a great move long-term, but culture changes take time. Falcons win.
September 20 vs. Boise State – Loss (2-1)
Let’s be real—Boise State was a monster in 2024. They went 12-2, made the College Football Playoff, and had Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty running for a ridiculous 2,600 yards and 29 touchdowns. They also return seven offensive starters. I just don’t see this one going our way.
September 27 vs. Hawaii – Win (3-1)
Hawaii beat Air Force in 2023 during that midseason meltdown. This time, we’re at home, we’re stable, and we’re taking this one.
October 4 at Navy – Loss (3-2)
Navy went 10-3 last year and returns 17 starters. Plus, they smacked us last season. Playing in Annapolis is tough, and this feels like another loss.
October 11 at UNLV – Loss (3-3)
UNLV had an insanely good 2024 season, going 11-3 and cracking the AP Top 25 for the first time. They’ll have a new coach, but that roster is still stacked. This one will be tough.
October 18 vs. Wyoming – Win (4-3)
Wyoming went 3-9 last season. They beat Air Force last year, but that was in Laramie, and we all know we don’t win there. Luckily, this one’s at home, so I’m feeling good about it.
November 1 vs. Army – Win (5-3)
Army was a beast last year, winning the AAC Championship and the Independence Bowl. They also lose their starting QB, which is a big deal. We’re 22-5 against them at home. I think we win one of the Commander-in-Chief games, and this feels like the better bet.
Also… I want to go to this game, but it’s the day before my wedding, so, uh, we’ll see if that’s happening.
November 8 at San Jose State – Win (6-3)
San Jose State beat us last year, but that was game two when this team was a mess. I like our chances for a little payback.
November 15 at UConn – Win (7-3)
UConn went 9-4 and had their best season since 2007. They’re loading up on transfers from big-time programs (Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska), but I think they’ll struggle against our run game. Should be close, though.
November 22 vs. New Mexico – Win (8-3)
New Mexico had their best season in years (5-7), and Jason Eck takes over as head coach. They’re getting better, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet.
November 29 at Colorado State – Win (9-3)
We lost to CSU by one score last season, but that was during the rough stretch. Historically, we’ve owned this series (38-19 all-time, 17-8 on the road). I think we get the job done this time.
Final Thoughts: A Bounce-Back Year?
After a rough start in 2024, the Falcons turned things around. Now, they bring back their starting QB, most of the offensive line, and a whole lot more experience. This season just feels different.
One of the things I’m most excited about? Bringing more data into our analysis. We’ll be looking at PFF grades, tracking data on every play, and breaking down the numbers like never before. This won’t just be opinions—it’ll be data-driven takes on where this team is excelling (or struggling).
All in all, 9-3 feels realistic based on the roster, schedule, and the way last season ended. The team is in a good spot to bounce back and get back to a bowl game.
I’ll have a more detailed preview as we get closer to kickoff, but for now—let me know what you think! Are we sleeping on a certain matchup? Do you think 9-3 is too optimistic? Drop your thoughts!
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